Saudi Arabia has flown 157 airstrikes on the Houthis, and the man who counts America's weapons says the result will be a mowed lawn that grows back
Mark Cancian tracks arsenals for CSIS, and the Saudi campaign looks sustainable to him for one reason: it burns the short and medium-range bombs the United States stocks deeply and sells freely.
What it cannot do is the thing Riyadh needs.
The Houthis have dug in the way Hezbollah and Hamas did, airpower can hamper their ports without closing them, and a third of normal traffic still moves through the Red Sea only because the Houthis choose not to hit the rest.
Israel, meanwhile, has struck a mutual silence with both Yemen and Iran, and the F-35s Washington just authorized for Riyadh won't reach a Saudi runway for years.
So the lawn gets mowed, the grass returns, and the port of Yanbu stays a target.
The only exit that has ever worked here is a ceasefire, and the Saudis aren't asking for one.
사우디 공습 지속
→ 후티 항만·발사시설 피해
→ 후티 전투능력 일시 감소
→ 그러나 조직·미사일/드론 능력 완전 제거 실패
→ 몇 주~몇 달 지나 다시 복구
→ Yanbu·Jeddah·Red Sea 선박 계속 위험
→ 다시 공습
Mark Cancian 쪽 논리는 탄약 측면에선 사우디가 당장 공습을 못 할 상황은 아니라는 것. 미국이 이란전에서 Tomahawk·Patriot 같은 고급 장거리 탄약 재고를 크게 소모했지만, CSIS도 지상 타격에서는 훨씬 풍부하고 저렴한 단·중거리 탄약으로 전환하면 높은 타격 속도를 지속할 수 있다고 분석