๐ช๐น๐ช๐ท The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project says reported Eritrean incursions into northern Ethiopia are unconfirmed, though it assesses Eritrea likely sent a limited number of reinforcements to back the TPLF.
In a new assessment, CTP said it geolocated images from pro-Ethiopian government sources claiming to show Eritrean forces near Adigrat in Tigray, but could not verify when they were taken or who was in them. It found no large-scale Eritrean buildup on the border in satellite imagery. AFP and ACLED reported Thursday that Eritrean forces in Adigrat had pulled back north.
As the two countries edge toward direct war, a prominent journalist is also accusing ACLED, one of the most widely cited conflict monitors, of echoing the Ethiopian government's line.
On Friday, the Economist's Africa correspondent Tom Gardner said ACLED's head sounded like an Ethiopian irredentist, meaning someone who believes Eritrea's coast rightfully belongs to Ethiopia. He shared excerpts from ACLED predicting the Ethiopian army would push toward Eritrea's port of Assab and describing that part of Eritrea as a "strange finger" that "seems to solely serve as a barrier to the sea for Ethiopia."
Gardner said it was another reminder of why ACLED โis not a credible or reliable source of info on Ethiopia and Eritrea,โ even though news outlets around the world routinely cite its data.
He has also criticized ACLED for recording only 5,325 deaths in the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which killed hundreds of thousands, according to researchers' estimates.