Middle East oil flows excluding Iran have surged back toward prewar levels. Kpler’s new dashboard puts the 7-day average for regional liquids moving through Hormuz, Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers and terminals, and the Red Sea at roughly 20–22 million b/d in recent days, more than double early-August levels.
Energy analyst Rory Johnston says Kpler’s 18 million b/d “pre-war” benchmark is too low because Gulf OPEC quotas have risen by more than 2 million b/d; he puts a comparable “return to normal” level at roughly 20–21 million b/d. Eurasia Group’s Gregory Brew notes the rebound has come without a major Iranian escalation.
Reuters separately reported Sept. 27 that Middle East crude exports reached 16.3 million b/d in September, the highest since the war began, including 9.7 million b/d through Hormuz. The monthly figure is still 3.2 million b/d below February.
Prices have eased a bit but remain near recent highs: U.S. regular gasoline is $4.46 a gallon, just 3¢ below its Sept. 25 peak of $4.49; diesel is $6.44, 8¢ below its Sept. 22 peak of $6.52. Brent was trading around $104 Tuesday at 11 am ET, down 1%.
AI Take
Neutral
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